Florence 1 Schools Demographic Study

Cropper GIS Consulting was hired by Florence 1 Schools to develop a Demographic Study. All phases of this project have been completed and Cropper presented their findings during a called board meeting on August 29th. Please see the information below, as well as the attached resources for the findings of the demographic study.

Demographic Study

The population forecasts in the demographic study are developed by using the Cohort- Component Method of population forecasting. Five data sets are required to generate population and enrollment forecasts. These five data sets are:

a.          a base-year population (here, the 2020 Census population for Florence School District One);

b.          a set of age-specific fertility rates for the district to be used over the forecast period;

c.           a set of age-specific survival (mortality) rates for the district;

d.         a set of age-specific migration rates for the district;

e.           the historical enrollment figures by grade.

Assumptions

a.           The national, state or regional economy does not go into deep recession at any time during the 10 years of the forecasts; (Deep recession is defined as four consecutive quarters where the GDP contracts greater than 1% per quarter)

b.           Interest rates have climbed from a historic low in 2020 and will not fluctuate more than one percentage point in the short term; the interest rate for a 30-year fixed home mortgage stays below 8.0%;

c.            The rate of mortgage approval stays at 2015-2020 levels and lenders do not return to “sub-prime” mortgage practices;

d.          There are no additional restrictions placed on home mortgage lenders or additional bankruptcies of major credit providers;

e.           The rate of housing foreclosures does not exceed 125% of the 2015-2020 average of Florence County for any year in the forecasts;

f.             All currently planned, platted, approved, and permitted housing developments are built out and completed by 2030. All housing units constructed are occupied by 2033;

g.           The unemployment rates for Florence County and the Florence Metropolitan Area will remain below 7.5% for the 10 years of the forecasts;

h.          The intra-district student transfer policy remains unchanged over the next 10 years;

i.             The State of South Carolina does not change any of its current laws or policies regarding Charter Schools, Vouchers or inter-district transfers;

a.           No additional Charter schools open in the district over the next 10 years;

b.           The rate of students transferring into and out of the Florence School District One will remain at the 2019-20 to 2023-24 average;

c.            The inflation rate for gasoline will stay below 5% per year for the 10 years of the forecasts;

d.          There will be no building moratorium within the district;

e.           Businesses within Florence and the surrounding communities remain viable;

f.             The number of existing home sales in the district that are a result of “distress sales” (homes worth less than the current mortgage value) will not exceed 20% of total homes sales in the district for any given year;

g.           Housing turnover rates (sale of existing homes in the district) will remain at their current levels. The majority of existing home sales are made by homeowners over the age of 55;

h.          Private school and home school attendance rates will remain constant;

i.             The rate of foreclosures for commercial property remains at the 2015-2020 average for Florence County;

j.              The new battery factory expected to bring 2,700 jobs will be built and operational by 2027;

k.           The district will have at least an average of 500 units of new home sales and new apartment construction per year for the next 10 years.

For more information, see the Demographic Study resources available below for download.

Demographic Study Presentation

Demographic Study Report